Spring is officially here, bringing a fresh perspective on the local real estate landscape. We are entering the spring market with a historically low number of homes available for buyers. Across seven highly sought-after Toll Brothers neighborhoods in Ann Arbor, only two active listings are currently for sale.
These neighborhoods: Walnut Ridge, Riding Oaks, Pines of Lake Forest, Glennborough, Concord Pines, Arbor Hills II, and Woodlands of Geddes represent some of the most desirable properties in the region. However, limited inventory continues to define the market. To put this into perspective, there were only 11 total sales across these communities in 2025. This marks the second-lowest sales volume we have seen in the past decade.
This update explores the driving forces behind this low inventory, breaks down the current dynamics of the Ann Arbor luxury market, and provides a clear outlook for what you can expect as we move deeper into 2026.
Why Homeowners Are Choosing to Stay Put
You might wonder why so few homes are hitting the market in such popular neighborhoods. The reality is that several compounding factors are causing homeowners to pause their moving plans. People love their homes, but financial and economic realities are playing a massive role in their decision to stay.
The Mortgage Rate Gap
The most significant factor keeping inventory low is the current mortgage rate environment. Many potential sellers refinanced or purchased their homes a few years ago, securing mortgage rates in the 3% range. If they decide to sell and purchase a new home today, they face current mortgage rates hovering around 6.2%. The math simply discourages lateral moves. Many homeowners prefer to keep their highly affordable monthly payments rather than trade up or switch neighborhoods and take on a much higher borrowing cost.
Property Tax Implications
Another major financial hurdle involves property taxes. In Michigan, property taxes are capped as long as you remain in your home. When you sell and purchase a new property, those taxes uncap. For homeowners who have lived in their Toll Brothers home for many years, moving means facing a completely uncapped tax assessment on their next purchase. This can result in a significant, often unexpected, increase in annual property taxes.
The Downsizing Dilemma
Many residents in these large, beautiful homes are empty nesters who would love to downsize. The problem is a severe lack of inventory on the other side of the transaction. There are very few smaller, high-quality homes or luxury condos available for them to purchase. Without a clear and appealing destination, these homeowners choose to remain in their current, spacious properties.
Economic Hesitation
Broader economic factors are also creating a sense of caution. Stock market gyrations and ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Iran, create a layer of uncertainty. When people feel uncertain about the global or national economy, they tend to hold onto their safest, most stable assets. For most people, that asset is their primary residence.
Life Events Drive the Current Sales
With so many reasons to stay, who is actually listing their homes right now? The answer comes down to major life events.
When homes do hit the market in these Toll Brothers neighborhoods, it is rarely a casual decision. Sellers are typically motivated by job transfers that require relocation. Retirement is another major catalyst, with homeowners moving south to warmer climates or transitioning into dedicated retirement facilities. Other unavoidable life changes, such as divorce, marriage, or the passing of a family member, continue to be the primary reasons these large luxury homes change hands.
Navigating the Ann Arbor Luxury Market
The million-dollar-plus luxury market in Ann Arbor behaves differently than the standard housing market. It is not inherently a hot market, nor is it a cold one. Instead, we call it a precision market.
In a precision market, outcomes are determined almost entirely by three things: pricing accuracy, property presentation, and marketing strategy. This dynamic explains why you might see one home sell in less than a week with multiple offers, while a similar home down the street lingers on the market for months without a bite.
When Sellers Hold the Advantage
There are very real conditions where sellers control the negotiation, but these conditions are earned, not guaranteed. Sellers win when they price their home at or just below its true market value. They also hold the advantage when overall inventory remains limited and their property shows exceptionally well.
The first seven to ten days on the market are critical. When a listing captures immediate attention during this window, buyers move quickly. They compete with one another and readily accept terms that strongly favor the seller.
When Buyers Gain Leverage
Buyers gain the upper hand when a seller makes a misstep. If a property is priced above market reality, buyers will simply wait. Leverage shifts to the buyer when there are multiple competing options or when a home sits on the market for more than two to three weeks.
Homes that lack modern updates or present in poor condition also give buyers the power to dictate terms. In these scenarios, showings slow down to a trickle, inevitable price reductions begin, and negotiating power completely shifts. Today’s luxury buyers are decisive, but they are not overpaying blindly. They open their checkbooks quickly only when the value is absolutely clear.
Current Luxury Market Statistics
While inventory in the specific Toll Brothers neighborhoods is incredibly tight, buyers looking at the broader million-dollar-plus market in Ann Arbor have a few more choices.
Currently, there are 35 homes for sale in this luxury niche, excluding new construction. Out of those 35 homes, 14 are already under contract, meaning 40% of the available inventory is spoken for. This leaves 21 active properties for a buyer to tour. Homes in this price bracket are selling at a rate of roughly 10 per month. This translates to a 3.2-month supply of inventory. In the real estate world, anything under a six-month supply favors the seller, giving them a slight but meaningful edge in today’s landscape.
The Toll Brothers Value Advantage
When you compare the Toll Brothers neighborhoods to the broader Ann Arbor luxury market, a distinct advantage emerges for buyers. You simply get much more home for your dollar.
Currently, homes in the broader million-dollar-plus market across the city are selling for an average of $432 per square foot. In contrast, homes within the Toll Brothers neighborhoods are averaging $303 per square foot. This significant price-per-square-foot gap makes these specific neighborhoods highly attractive for buyers seeking luxury, space, and community amenities without paying the premium attached to other high-end enclaves in the city.
Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2026
As we look deeper into 2026, the local real estate outlook remains cautiously upbeat. Washtenaw County continues to stand out as a top-tier micro-market.
Our local economy is built on incredibly solid foundations. We benefit from the presence of a world-class university and three massive hospital systems. These institutions consistently draw highly educated, high-income professionals to the area. Because of this steady influx of qualified buyers, the Ann Arbor market tends to hold up much better than most other regions, even when the broader national economy slows down.
Given this shifting, highly nuanced market, working with an experienced professional is more important than ever. You need an agent who knows your specific local market, tracks current inventory daily, understands the real stories behind recent neighborhood sales, and has the experience to guide you. This knowledge ensures you make an educated, profitable decision when it comes time to list your property.
Discover Your Home’s Potential
Knowledge is your best asset in a precision market. You can learn more about the specific trends impacting your community by visiting bouma.com. You can search neighborhoods here to find constant, up-to-date information regarding active listings and recent sales in that area.
If you are thinking of selling this year, now is an excellent time to take action. Property prices remain at historical highs, and the lack of inventory means your well-presented home will command immediate attention. Give me a call at 734-761-3060 or info@bouma.com to discuss your personal real estate goals and explore the unique opportunities waiting for you in today’s housing market.